Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso decision to leave ECOWAS don lead to many reactions official and otherwise.
Sabi pipo for international mata don dey torchlight di many different ways dis three kontris withdrawal go take affect dem, affect tins around dem plus affect di West Africa union join.
More dan anytin, most of di mata dem wey dem dey torchlight pass, na how di three kontris go lose out on many tins including security, sake of dia decision to leave.
As one international affairs analyst, Jibrin Ibrahim, tell BBC, “dis withdrawal fit lead to increase of di crisis for di Sahel, instead of to reduce am.”
But e get one very important bilateral relationship or two kontri relationship wey sabi pipo neva too torchlight and dat two kontris na Niger and Nigeria.
So, how dis tension between Nigeria and Niger go affect Nigeria?
Nigeria and Niger na two kontris wit very close connections on so many many levels, economic, environmental, social plus security.
How di gbas gbos go fit affect socially
On a social level, Niger and northern Nigeria get common history and cultural relationship.
E get plenty intermarriage between pipo of di two kontris. Many families get family members wey dey live for both kontris.
International analyst and former Director General of National Orientation Agency (NOA), Mike Omeri, say, “e get many families wey I sabi wey dey dis part but dem also come from Niger. So you go now need to introduce immigration laws wey no ever exist before.”
Wit dis decision, goment go create identity palava for families wey go now dey drag weda dem be Nigerian or Nigerien, im add.
Wit Niger decision to leave ECOWAS, e dey forfeit di 1975 free movement protocol wey allow all citizens of dia member states to travel freely wit out visa.
Therefore, pipo for Nigeria wey get family for Niger and pipo for Niger wey get family for Nigeria, go now need visa to take visit dia family members.
Again, e also get pipo for Niger wey get farms inside Nigeria and vice versa like dat. Dis kain pipo go dey affected becos dem no go fit go dia farm.
Omeri say, “For Birnin Kebbi area, e get pipo wey dia farm dey for Niger and pipo from Niger wey dia farm dey Nigeria. how dem wan cross go dia farm?”
All of dis according to di former NOA oga, go definitely increase kasala for di border between di kontris.
“We no need crises posts for dat border wetin we need na security posts,” Omeri tok, come add say if fight start for dat border, di Nigerians dia no go fit protect demsef becos, dem no get di kain weapons Niger pipo get as dem get more militants.
E go affect Nigeria security
Di fighting for border as pipo go dey try claim ownership of properties wey dem own across border, no go be di only security palava wey di Nigeria goment go face in addition to all di insecurity wahala wey full inside di kontri.
Dis dia gbas gbos go scatter di Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) wey bin be military collabo between Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria to fight Boko Haram terrorism.
Omeri say as tins dey now: “Na different protocol or agreement go now guide di Multinational Joint Task Force wey we get… e dey dia but e dey very weak, so e go destroy am completely.”
Dis collabo plus di brotherly relation wey bin dey exist between Niger and Nigeria bin make am possible for Nigerien soldiers to enta Nigeria come fight Boko Haram without special permission.
Now, wit all dis tension between di two kontris, Niger soldiers no go fit enta Nigeria fight Boko Haram again becos, now dem go need visa to enta Nigeria.
Economic impact on Nigeria
Nigeria and Niger be commodity markets for each oda, dat na to say most of Niger products na for Nigeria dem dey come sell dem and Nigeria too dey sell market give Niger.
Also, one of di ways wey Nigeria dey take import cheap tins eta di kontri na through Niger.
So, Nigeria go lose dat important cheap route wey e from dey bring in tins like cars and food stuff dem.
Dis gbas-gbos go affect one very important mata wey get both economic and environmental implications.
Dat na di light wey Nigeria dey give Niger for one very important bilateral agreement.
Di light wey Nigeria bin dey sell give Niger na im dey power 70% of Niger. And dis arrangement bin dey based on legal covenant between di two kontris.
Di two kontris enta dis legal covenant becos di River Niger pass through Niger Republic, and wen Niger Republic bin wan build dia own hydropower dam, Nigeria goment discourage dem unto say di dam go stop water flow to im own dams wey dey Jebba, Kainji for Niger state.
But afta coup wey remove President Mohammed Bazoum, ECOWAS decide to terminate dis legal agreement by disconnecting di electricity.
But Omeri say, dis move no be in Nigeria best interest as dis don dey jinja Niger to build dia own.
If Niger succeed to build di dam, na im be say dem don cut off Kianji dam water supply.
Di palava be say e no go just end dia. Di main worry according to Omeri na di kain kasala dis go cause for di Nigeria environment.
E go impact di environment
Aside from say water go scarce for Kainji dam to take provide electricity for Nigeria wia most parts of di kontri dey live inside darkness, di oda kasala wey dis go cause na flood.
Di former NOA oga say, already as tins be, di Lagdo Dam for Cameroon dey cause heavy flooding wey dey lead to loss of life and property for Nigeria each year wen dem open dia dam.
Di goment neva sabi how to solve dis palava.
To come join am wit flood from dam for Niger Republic any time dem decide to release water go be major headache for Nigeria pipo.